Covid-19 briefing

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- ECONOMIC IMPACT -

Latest update: 19 January

 According to China’s General Administration of Customs, the country’s trade surplus rose to $676bn in 2021, the highest since records began.

 Goldman Sachs estimates that the Chinese economy will grow by 4.3% in 2022, which is a downward revision from its previous estimate of 4.8%.

0.9%

 According to the ONS, the UK’s economy grew by 0.9% in November 2021, surpassing its pre-pandemic level GDP.

8.3%

 According to the World Bank, the real GDP growth rate of the Indian economy is forecast at 8.3% in FY22 and 8.7% in FY23.

- SECTOR IMPACT: Travel and tourism -

Latest update: 2 February

International travel impact

$1.3bn

Expedia Group increased its Q3 2021 sales and marketing spend by 150% YoY, to a staggering $1.3bn.

       63%

According to GlobalData, total global hotel revenue in 2021 was projected to be at 63% of 2019 levels.

SHORT-Term IMPACT

There is uncertainty over the length of travel restrictions, and the indication is that measures will be in place even when travel fully opens back up.

Long-Term IMPACT

Intermediaries are seen by many as a necessary aid when booking, so demand will return. Direct bookings with providers could increase due to the flexible cancellation policies offered.

Key travel and tourism market developments

After a summer that created hope for many global destinations due to vaccine rollouts and improved traveller confidence, the outlook now looks significantly bleaker with the global outbreak of the Omicron variant.

As infection rates surge across European countries, a sustained rebound from the pandemic looks less likely as many destinations reimplement restrictions upon international travel, and the Netherlands goes back into a national lockdown.

The Covid-19 pandemic shut down the cruise industry in March 2020. Many major operators have invested heavily in contactless technology and app-based engagement to create a contactless cruise experience compared to pre-Covid-19 times.

The sector is still being blighted by outbreaks of the virus on vessels. Cruise line Royal Caribbean International recently cancelled two sailings on its ship Quantum of the Seas after Covid-19 cases were detected on board.